Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.005213 0.005505 0.005807 0.006141 0.006502 0.006882 0.007310
2024-12-22 0.004661 0.005089 0.005551 0.006089 0.006700 0.007377 0.008188
2024-12-29 0.004267 0.004761 0.005309 0.005969 0.006747 0.007640 0.008754
2025-01-05 0.003978 0.004513 0.005122 0.005874 0.006784 0.007863 0.009257
2025-01-12 0.003800 0.004375 0.005043 0.005886 0.006934 0.008211 0.009914
2025-01-19 0.003530 0.004108 0.004790 0.005666 0.006776 0.008159 0.010049
2025-01-26 0.003412 0.004017 0.004741 0.005689 0.006915 0.008480 0.010679
2025-02-02 0.003374 0.004018 0.004803 0.005849 0.007234 0.009044 0.011666
2025-02-09 0.003234 0.003884 0.004688 0.005773 0.007233 0.009180 0.012065
2025-02-16 0.003131 0.003792 0.004619 0.005752 0.007302 0.009409 0.012605
2025-02-23 0.003026 0.003693 0.004536 0.005705 0.007330 0.009577 0.013063
2025-03-02 0.002987 0.003676 0.004559 0.005801 0.007557 0.010037 0.013985
2025-03-09 0.002906 0.003604 0.004506 0.005793 0.007641 0.010300 0.014634
2025-03-16 0.002814 0.003513 0.004427 0.005745 0.007664 0.010474 0.015156
2025-03-23 0.002706 0.003398 0.004308 0.005635 0.007589 0.010493 0.015424
2025-03-30 0.002613 0.003298 0.004208 0.005546 0.007541 0.010549 0.015753
2025-04-06 0.002560 0.003252 0.004179 0.005557 0.007642 0.010839 0.016497
2025-04-13 0.002437 0.003106 0.004007 0.005354 0.007405 0.010581 0.016269
2025-04-20 0.002395 0.003071 0.003989 0.005375 0.007515 0.010884 0.017055
2025-04-27 0.002397 0.003096 0.004055 0.005524 0.007829 0.011537 0.018529
2025-05-04 0.002330 0.003022 0.003978 0.005453 0.007792 0.011601 0.018911
2025-05-11 0.002282 0.002973 0.003936 0.005434 0.007836 0.011803 0.019571
2025-05-18 0.002228 0.002916 0.003879 0.005391 0.007837 0.011932 0.020096